Big day for progressive candidates may limit Democratic gains in the House

Given historical trends on the number of seats lost by the president’s party in the first midterm, the number of GOP retirements this cycle, and redistricting in Pennsylvania ordered by the state’s supreme court and created by a university professor to favor Democrats, prospects for Democrats taking the House remain quite good. But not quite as good as they were the day before yesterday.

Last night, progressive candidates had a good night in the Democratic primaries in the Keystone State, as well as springing an upset in the competitive 2^nd district in Nebraska.  In Pennsylvania,  a state where Republicans  now hold 12 of the 18 House seats under the old map, Democrats had more total voters in 10 of the state’s 18 districts in primary races yesterday. However, 2 of those were  about even. If Republicans wind up with 9 or 10 seats in Pennsylvania this year, that would be far from a worst case scenario.