The current US “official” unemployment rate is at 4.1% and most economists are forecasting a drop below 4% very soon and possibly below 3% by the end of 2019.
U.S. unemployment is primed to fall significantly further and could drop below 3 percent for the first time since 1953, the year central bank chief Jerome Powell was born.
That’s according to economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Deutsche Bank AG and Moody’s Analytics Inc. With an already solid economy set to receive a double dose of fiscal stimulus, they argue that a drop in joblessness from its 17-year low of 4.1 percent in February is all but inevitable.
And they say that a break below 3 percent is a distinct possibility — even with the return of some workers to the labor force — especially if Federal Reserve Chairman Powell doesn’t do more to slow the economy down.
“We have unemployment at 3.25 percent by the end of 2019,” Jan Hatzius, Goldman’s chief economist, said in an email. “A decline below 3 percent at some point is obviously possible.”
The number of “discouraged workers” who have given up looking for work is dropping like a stone. Those working part time who want a full time job is also dropping.
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